Here is my column from today's Tennessean. Happy Father's Day!

In its monthly surveys of small business owners, the National Federation of Independent Business found that small businesses have been feeling a bit more optimistic the past two months. The results seem to suggest that entrepreneurs are beginning to believe that the worst may be over when it comes to the recession. But just what will the recovery will look like? And what is the longer-term outlook for the economy?

The pace of the recovery will not be consistent for every business owner. This recovery is not going to be a case of a rising tide lifting all boats.

While certain sectors of the economy and specific geographic regions are showing some signs of improvement, others seem to be mired with flat or even continued declining sales.

Within specific industries we are seeing inconsistent trends. For example, while much of real estate and construction remains almost dead in the water, those who work within the health-care segment of this industry report improving performance.

Business owners hold back

In looking deeper into the results of the NFIB survey, there are signs that this recovery may be a long, slow road. Even though entrepreneurs feel more optimistic, they do not plan to increase hiring, build inventories or resume capital spending anytime soon.

Some of their optimism may be coming from a realization that the cries in the media that this was becoming the "next Great Depression" were unsubstantiated exaggerations.

"The biggest concern on the minds of (business) owners is the weakness in spending which has now started to turn up as consumers become less concerned with proclamations of pending disaster for the economy -- it's not going to happen," said NFIB chief economist William Dunkelberg.

However, the improvement in consumer spending shows little sign of creating a strong bounce in the economy anytime soon.

And what can we expect for the long-term economic outlook? Understand that economies are not just isolated to commercial transactions. There is a strong long-term tie between our economy and our society and culture. There are some signs that we may be in a period of fundamental economic and cultural change.

Things won't be the same

The frenzied consumerism-driven economy that dominated our past decades may never return.

We may emerge from the recession into a very different economic/cultural reality. There are growing signs that consumers are becoming less concerned with keeping up with the Joneses and more focused on becoming frugal spenders.

Opportunities can still be found in such a transformed economy if it actually occurs. The key will be to understand these changes and offer new business models that respond to changing needs, preferences, attitudes and consumer behavior.

Entrepreneurs have led the way with almost every economic recovery. Let's hope that their new-found optimism will soon translate into renewed and sustainable economic growth.

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